MLB 2024 Top breakout candidate for all 30 teams

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Whether it's fantasy baseball players looking for a leg up on the competition in the new season or fans craving the next big thing on their favorite MLB team, I get asked a lot about sleepers this time of year, so let's identify the biggest breakout candidate for all 30 clubs.

I'm defining a breakout season not just as "beating last year's WAR," because picking young players who are growing into more playing time is a pretty easy hack for that. I'm picking players under 30 years old who I think will beat their projected WAR by at least a half-win, using FanGraphs' Depth Chart projections for both playing quality and playing time. That means this isn't just a list of top prospects, projected stars or 26-year-olds entering their prime. We have some solid sleepers for fantasy leagues and post-hype picks, as well.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Alek Thomas, CF (FG projection: 2.1 WAR)

Thomas is a former top-100 prospect who had a slow start to his big league career. He underperformed his xwOBA in each of his first two seasons, which is unusual for a speedy player, and he's trending up with strong performances in the 2023 playoffs and 2024 spring training. The projections also see a clear up-trend coming, but I think he'll beat that number. Brandon Pfaadt has had a similar experience in the big leagues, with signs that he's also turning the corner.

Atlanta Braves

AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP (FG projection: 0.3 WAR)

Austin Riley is a sneaky good choice here (the projection expects defensive regression after a clear improvement in 2023) and I'm pretty sure either Adam Duvall or Jarred Kelenic will beat their projection, but I couldn't decide which. Smith-Shawver is the Braves' sixth starter (I think he's ahead of Bryce Elder, Huascar Ynoa, Ian Anderson, et al.) and starting in Triple-A. With Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez in the rotation, projecting a dozen or more starts for Smith-Shawver is a good bet.

Baltimore Orioles

Colton Cowser, CF (FG projection: 0.7 WAR)

The other two strong candidates here are infielders waiting for a big league spot to open: Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday. There's a deep group of infielders on the big league roster (another decent breakout pick in Jordan Westburg is one of them). Holliday then Mayo seems like the call-up hierarchy, but it isn't clear when those call-ups will happen. I think the first base/designated hitter/corner outfield spots are easier to project a shift in playing time, and Cowser, coming off a blazing-hot spring, would be the first one in line to get that playing time.

Boston Red Sox

Triston Casas, 1B (FG projection: 2.7 WAR)

Brayan Bello is another decent option, but Casas is the best one here. He's still just 24 years old, and the projections are already counting on very little positional, defensive and baserunning value, so just staying healthy and being a bit better at the plate than last year (he was a touch unlucky at the plate in 2023, actually) is all that's needed.

Chicago Cubs

Seiya Suzuki, RF (FG projection: 2.4 WAR)

There are a ton of candidates here, but most of them depend on how much the Cubs let young players play. Can Michael Busch hold a platoon DH job all season? When does Pete Crow-Armstrong come up to stay? Will Owen Caissie or Matt Shaw or Cade Horton get an extended big league look this year? Mike Tauchman and Jordan Wicks are tangentially related to these potential young upstarts -- will those two keep their current spots all season? -- but I'd rather count on continued improvement from Suzuki. He had a fantastic spring and put up 3.2 WAR last year, so coming within 10% of that would be a win on this pick, as the projections see defensive regression coming.

Chicago White Sox

Jordan Leasure, RHP (FG projection: 0.1 WAR)

Leasure is one of my favorite middle-tier-prospect picks to click this season. He has all the tools and performance to be a late-inning option for the White Sox for the whole season, where 0.6 WAR is close to the expectation in that role. Post-hype sleepers Michael Kopech and Andrew Vaughn could also be in line for breakouts.

Cincinnati Reds

Elly De La Cruz, SS (FG projection: 2.0 WAR)

De La Cruz has a big error bar on his projection -- I could see him just as easily putting up 4 WAR as being optioned -- but I'm betting on the upside with his otherworldly tools, in part because his feel for the game has been better than I expected in the upper minors. I think he'll continue to improve in the big leagues. Noelvi Marte (after coming back from his performance-enhancing drug suspension) has a good shot to beat his projection, and I'd expect at least one of a trio of pitchers I like -- Andrew Abbott, Connor Phillips and Tony Santillan -- to clear their projections by a good margin.

Cleveland Guardians

Chase DeLauter, RF (FG projection: minus-0.1 WAR)

DeLauter has the vibes of a prospect who will get big league time before a typical amount of minor league reps, but even a hot September could be enough at-bats to post 0.4 WAR. Brayan Rocchio is another solid pick from the Guardians.

Colorado Rockies

Michael Toglia, RF (FG projection: minus-0.4 WAR)

Like DeLauter, Toglia is helped by a negative WAR projection, but Toglia is set to open the season as the Rockies' primary right fielder and I think he might have turned the corner this spring. Sean Bouchard is another sleeper with a good shot to beat his projections, while high-variance position players Hunter Goodman (power) and Brenton Doyle (all-around skill) are also solid picks.

Detroit Tigers

Jack Flaherty, RHP (FG projection: 1.5 WAR)

Detroit is a young team, littered with arrow-up types and prospects ready for prime time. I considered Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, Colt Keith, Parker Meadows, Jace Jung and Casey Mize, and any of them could be the pick on a thinner or older club. But Flaherty is an easy choice here. He hasn't matched his 2018-19 breakout campaigns for a while, and signs are that he will get back to that level in 2024 before becoming a free agent next winter.

Houston Astros

Hunter Brown, RHP (FG projection: 2.0 WAR)

I think Jeremy Pena and Yainer Diaz are two young position players who have more in the tank than projected, but Brown is an even better pick, in my mind. He has clear strikeout stuff and starter feel on top of making 29 starts last season, so the durability is also there. The projection has him as a fourth starter, but I think Brown might make the leap to one of the best starters on one of the best teams in baseball this season.

Kansas City Royals

Bobby Witt Jr., SS (FG projection: 4.6 WAR)

This one was a toss-up between Witt just coming close to replicating what he did last year (5.7 WAR) or betting on 2023 breakout lefty Cole Ragans throwing enough innings at a comparable quality to last season (96 innings with mid-3.00s ERA and ERA estimators) to beat his 2.5 WAR projection. I'll go with Witt, as he might become a face of the sport if he can replicate his 2023 season, which I think he will. His .369 expected wOBA was much higher than his actual .343 wOBA last year, and his physical tools suggest his underlying stats will continue improving. Relievers James McArthur and Matt Sauer are decent lower-WAR bets, while Vinnie Pasquantino could be in line for a breakout as well.

Los Angeles Angels

Jo Adell, LF (FG projection: 0.3 WAR)

There are several young position players whom I like on this club, but I think the projections for Zach Neto, Logan O'Hoppe, and Nolan Schanuel reflect their quality. Adell has fallen short of his star expectations, but I still see a path for him to carve out a big league role -- and 2024 might be the year he gets there.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Bobby Miller, RHP (FG projection: 2.6 WAR)

Miller is a stealth Cy Young candidate who posted 2.8 WAR in a strong rookie season. I believe both in his talent and the Dodgers' ability to develop pitchers like him. Shohei Ohtani's 3.8 WAR projection on the heels of a 6.6 position player WAR seems a little light, but I don't think it's breaking news to tell you Ohtani is an elite hitter. Gavin Stone and Emmet Sheehan are two other pitchers worth a look.

Miami Marlins

Jesus Luzardo, LHP (FG projection: 3.2 WAR)

Like Miller, Luzardo is showing signs of making the leap this year. I'll take the over on his projection, but there's a nice collection of young players who haven't quite broken through yet, including starting pitchers Ryan Weathers and Max Meyer and corner outfielder Jesus Sanchez, who has big raw power.

Milwaukee Brewers

Jackson Chourio, CF (FG projection: 1.4 WAR)

Chourio's projection is mostly because he has barely played above Double-A and he's still just 20 years old, but I think he has a very good chance to post 2 WAR this season. After the Corbin Burnes trade, the Brewers are flush with young players who will make up the core of their next contender, so you could pick any number of them; DL Hall, Jacob Misiorowski, Sal Frelick, Joey Ortiz, Abner Uribe and Tyler Black are the ones I considered most.

Minnesota Twins

Matt Wallner, LF (FG projection: 1.4 WAR)

I've been a fan of Wallner's since he got to Southern Miss as a little-known prep prospect. He posted 1.9 WAR in 76 games last season as a rookie despite a 32% strikeout rate because the 6-foot-5 slugger hit 14 homers. Putting up 1.9 WAR again over a full season would be a winner, and I think he can do that, though he is a high-variance type. Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff are also offense-first young lefty bats, while Brooks Lee is a potential midseason call-up with similar potential who can also play a decent shortstop.

New York Mets

Christian Scott, RHP (FG projection: 0.1 WAR)

Christian Scott was a star of late spring training, striking out eight and walking one in five innings, with pitching ninja-level stuff, to boot. He's a late bloomer ready for an extended big league look in 2024, but his projection is this low because of the competition between players in Triple-A and on the injured list for any spots that open. Since Scott is the best option, I'll take his side. Luis Severino is a strong bounce-back candidate and Brett Baty is a conventional breakout candidate, while Mark Vientos stands to get Baty's at-bats if he doesn't break out.

New York Yankees

Luis Gil, RHP (FG projection: 0.9 WAR)

Gil grabbed the fifth starter spot and has a shot to keep it until Gerrit Cole returns, but would probably still hold the spot if he performs well. Some scouts see real 2024 upside now that Gil is back from Tommy John surgery, and I wouldn't call Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt the most elite or most healthy competition. Will Warren is another long relief/starter candidate who should get a long look this season, and I think he will beat expectation, but I don't know how many big league innings he'll get. Jasson Dominguez should return in the second half and could blow past his 0.3 WAR projection in a hot month.

Oakland Athletics

JJ Bleday, CF (FG projection: 0.9 WAR)

There are a lot of good candidates in Oakland, as the A's are flush with young players and post-hype types who just need playing time. Bleday was the fourth pick in 2019 and looks like he'll start in center field, bat third and not be platooned in his age-26 season. I'm not sure he has the All-Star potential some saw at draft time, but he'll have every opportunity to show he's a true everyday player. Shea Langeliers, Lawrence Butler, Joe Boyle, Darell Hernaiz and Tyler Soderstrom are also solid candidates.

Philadelphia Phillies

Johan Rojas, CF (FG projection: 0.7 WAR)

Rojas is a standout, plus-plus defender in center field, but has played only 59 regular-season games in the big leagues. The projection seems to assume he's merely a good defender, so Rojas could meet or exceed it with baserunning, defense and positional value, even if he barely hits at all. I think he's a fine, but not great, hitter, thus making him a strong pick here. Cristopher Sanchez is one of my stronger picks to click among starting pitchers around the league, while Orion Kerkering is one of my favorite relievers given his 80-grade slider.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Henry Davis, C (FG projection: 1.6 WAR)

Davis, the 2021 No. 1 pick, was red-hot at the plate this spring and looks to have locked down an everyday role in the lineup with his hand issues now behind him. He was so-so in a big league look last year, but this is smelling like a breakout year. Righty Jared Jones is my top breakout pick of mine who didn't become one of the 30 -- I think he'll stick in the rotation for the whole season and get some down-ballot Rookie of the Year attention, a good bit better than his 1.1 WAR projection. Oneil Cruz and Paul Skenes have sky-high potential and merit consideration, while Jared Triolo could level up to low-end starter this season.

San Diego Padres

Jackson Merrill, CF (FG projection: 1.2 WAR)

Merrill looks like he'll get a fair shot to be in the lineup the whole season, and he's exactly the type of hitter who tends to stick once he comes up, with plus-plus bat control and a hit-first approach. His baserunning and defensive value, along with some pop and versatility, offer lots of avenues to accrue value. Dylan Cease appears to have added a cutter to his repertoire, while Ha-Seong Kim is in a potential walk year, so I'm keeping my eye on both veterans for career years. Since the Pads are aggressive in promoting prospects, keep an eye on Robby Snelling, Dylan Lesko and Jakob Marsee.

San Francisco Giants

Joey Bart, C (FG projection: 0.0 WAR)

Bart is currently in roster limbo, so as the third catcher, he isn't projected for much playing time. I think on the heels of a very good spring, the 2018 No. 2 pick will lock down a backup role by midseason with some team, and he could probably post 0.5 WAR just on defense. He's probably the only one of my 30 picks I expect to switch teams in the first half. There's a litany of young pitchers who could get extended looks this season -- Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn, Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black and Landen Roupp -- while incoming nine-figure center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, Luis Matos and Marco Luciano are the main position player candidates who could outperform their projections.

Seattle Mariners

Bryce Miller, RHP (FG projection: 1.6 WAR)

Because the Mariners are headlined by a bunch of young players who have largely already broken through (along with some veteran role players), there aren't a ton of candidates who seem like obvious choices other than Miller. He added a new splitter this spring and posted 1.9 WAR last season, so there's a good bit of room for growth beyond this projection.

St. Louis Cardinals

Nolan Gorman, 2B (FG projection: 2.4 WAR)

Victor Scott and Thomas Saggese are two of my 2024 prospect picks to click, and Scott is a trendy name since fantasy owners love his stolen-base potential now that he'll be in the lineup to start the season. Saggese might hit 15 to 20 homers in half a season, but a loaded infield means he may not get that chance this year. My pick to click among those infielders is Gorman. He's 23 years old with 208 MLB games, so it's around the time I'd expect to see a step forward, and he was a bit unlucky last season. If he doesn't have a 3-WAR season in 2024, I'd bet on one soon. I'm hesitant to jump on board with Jordan Walker, mainly because of what defensive metrics said about his 2023 (minus-12, minus-14, and minus-16 defensive runs saved from the three leading sources). If Tink Hence gets 10 MLB starts in 2024, he'd be the pick, but he's behind a very deep group right now.

Tampa Bay Rays

Ryan Pepiot, RHP (FG projection: 1.1 WAR)

I don't know how many MLB at-bats Junior Caminero will get in 2024, but he'd be the pick on most teams. Taj Bradley (now on the 15-day IL with a pectoral injury) and Jose Caballero are two more strong picks, but I'm going with Pepiot. He came over in the Tyler Glasnow trade and has been steeping in the top two pitcher development organizations. He had an excellent spring and will be in the rotation after limited chances with the Dodgers. Expect Pepiot to be another Rays breakthrough pitcher.

Texas Rangers

Wyatt Langford, LF (FG projection: 2.4 WAR)

I'm going to continue to push my chips to the middle of the table on Langford, my top prospect in the 2024 MLB draft. I think he'll win the American League Rookie of the Year and post a 3-plus-WAR season. Two more young infielders (Ezequiel Duran and Justin Foscue) could also break through with enough playing time.

Toronto Blue Jays

Ricky Tiedemann, LHP (FG projection: 0.5 WAR)

There are a couple of young position players I like (Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez) who will have to wait for big league playing time, along with a reemerging setup man (Nate Pearson) and a recent high-variance signing (Yariel Rodriguez). Tiedemann is so talented that he can bully his way into the big league rotation when he's ready, and he could be a front-line type by the end of the season.

Washington Nationals

James Wood, CF (FG projection: 0.1 WAR)

Wood was a revelation in the spring, posting a 1.213 OPS in 57 plate appearances after I tabbed him as the 11th-best prospect in baseball. He's a 6-6, plus-running, lefty-hitting potential center fielder with plus-plus raw power and an above average walk rate. He's a unicorn who is starting this year in Triple-A, but with a pretty bad Nats team, nothing should stand in his way. Dylan Crews probably needs most if not all of 2024 in the minors. Lane Thomas is underappreciated, while Cade Cavalli (about to return from Tommy John surgery) and CJ Abrams are conventional former top prospects who might have breakout seasons.